Economic activity increased 3.7% in year-on-year terms in June, which was a deterioration from May’s 6.4% increase. June’s outturn marked the worst reading since February 2021. June’s notable weakening was partly driven by a sharper fall in the mining sector. In addition, growth in the non-mining sector weakened.
On a monthly basis, economic activity dropped 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, matching May’s fall. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average growth of economic activity coming in at 10.3% in June, down from May’s 11.7%.
Data for Q2 as a whole suggests that the economy eked out a mild quarter-on-quarter expansion in the period. However, economic activity is expected to fall back into contraction in Q3 and Q4 as far higher interest rates, double-digit inflation and weak business sentiment bite.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.0% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2023, GDP is seen expanding 0.5%.